Asia and the Pacific

The ongoing shift of Asia's centre of political and economic gravity to the north-east continued in 2001. China, with average growth of 8 per cent over the past 10 years, and a still respectable 7.3 per cent in 2001, was a political and economic stabilising factor that remained largely unaffected by the recession that has hit most other states of the region. China's admission to the World Trade Organisation at the end of the year assured it of enormous interest from foreign investors. Japanese investment in China has doubled over the past decade, with more than the half of Chinese-Japanese trade taking place between Japanese firms and their Chinese subsidiaries. More and more electronic and other highvalue goods are being turned out by Chinese factories. The WTO membership opens up enormous opportunities, but will demand restructuring and reform, while market opening will expose hitherto protected industries to international competition.

China's increasing interest in cooperation with the international community was shown by its support for the anti-terror coalition in Afghanistan, the inter-Korean dialogue, the Shanghai Organisation for Cooperation (to combat terror and assure stability in the region) and by the more relaxed relationship with the US, despite a spy plane incident in April. The decision to hold the 2008 Olympic Games in China is an expression of the world community's positive assessment of the new foreign policy orientation. The 30th anniversary of the opening of diplomatic relations between Austria and China was marked by an official visit to China by Austrian Federal President Thomas Klestil.

Japan, the world's second-largest economic power, and as such the pacemaker in Asia, has still not been able to overcome the recession. Industrial production went down by 10 per cent in 2001, exports decreased, the currency weakened and the debt quota remained high. The government under Prime Minister Koizumi attempted to counter this negative trend with a programme of restructuring and renewal. In foreign policy, Japan proved itself a reliable partner of the US after the terrorist attacks on September 11 and declared its readiness to play a leading role in the reconstruction of Afghanistan in both the material and organisational respects.

The particularly dynamic economic growth in India, which even puts it among the "top ten" globally, indicates the emergence of an additional ec onomic centre in Asia. India, however, is still combating problems like a backward agricultural system and widespread poverty. The democratic system is a stabilising factor in the multi -ethnic state of India, which, despite decades of tensions and conflict with Pakistan, is in no way endangered in its functions.

Towards the end of the year the new government of Sri Lanka asked Norway to assist in mediating peace negotiations with the Tamil separatists in the eastern and northern parts of the island. A cease-fire was signed on 22 February 2002.

East Timor, which became independent of Indonesia in November 1999, held its first free election, for the initial constitutional assembly. The conduct of the election was fair and assures the country's progress into a democratic future.

In Korea, the internal dialogue between the two states became deadlocked after the historic Pyongyang summit in 2000. The most-quoted reasons for the slow pace of rapprochement in 2001 were the enhanced state of readiness of the South Korean forces in connection with the military action in Afghanistan, and North Korean distrust of the US Bush administration. The "sunshine policy" of the President of the Republic of Korea is becoming less accepted by the population, and a return visit to Seoul by the political leadership of North Korea is still in the distant future. The dynamics of the mutual approach by the two Korean states appears to have been interrupted. The Democratic People's Republic of Korea still exhibits substantial deficits in the observation of elementary democratic principles and basic human rights. A new order for internal Korean relations and the strengthening of the bilateral dialogue were the themes of an official visit in May by Austrian Minister for Foreign Affairs Benita Ferrero-Waldner.

Central Asia

In Central Asia the first half of 2001 was characterized by an intensive discussion about developments in Afghanistan. Almost all of the states of Central Asia were considering closer contacts with the Taliban regime, with the exception of Tajikistan, which strongly supported the Tajik-dominated Northern Alliance. In view of security risks emanating from Afghanistan certain security mechanisms were established or reactivated by the surrounding countries within the frameworks of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the Shanghai Organisation for Cooperation. The events of September 11, however, led to a further weakening of internal cooperation within the CIS, since the individual members swiftly revived their global agendas and now insist more than ever on their role as equal partners. The new strategic and security situation in Central Asia has led to a reconsideration of the existing methods of cooperation. Bilateral relations also remained tense, with mutual accusations of lack of action against the infiltration of terrorists, and mining of border areas. Other sources of tension included the delineation of borders, complicated transport connections, ethnic enclaves with insufficient access to their respective motherlands, and the question of water, gas and oil supplies.

Central Asia moved to the centre of the world politics after the events of September 11. In connection with the formation of a new government in Afghanistan the individual Central Asian countries primarily supported those sections of the Afghan population that corresponded to the respective ethnic populations of the Central Asian states. Uzbekistan immediately provided the use of an airfield, while Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where the Russian 201st Division is still stationed, also offered to provide facilities. These are used by the United States and altogether 11 other countries. Kyrgyzstan has also made an airfield available to the Russian Federation for operations in Afghanistan. Within a few weeks the formerly somewhat neglected region became the venue for numerous highlevel visits.

Central Asia had traditionally been a priority of Russian foreign policy, which had endeavoured to bind the states to itself more closely through regional cooperation in the economic and security sectors. The events of September 11, however, led to a diminution of Russia's importance for the region as a whole. The Russian and CIS positions on the stationing of US and other military forces always followed the ac tual stationing of the troops.

Austria, for the first time in CSCE/OSCE history, had made Central Asia a priority of her OSCE chairmanship in 2000, and continued to lobby strongly in the EU for more attention to be paid to the region. This led to a journey by Council President Louis Michel, accompanied by the EU Troika, to Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Austrian Minister for Foreign Affairs Benita Ferrero-Waldner was the first EU foreign minister to visit Kyrgyzstan after September 11. The presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan and the foreign minister of Tajikistan paid official visits to Austria. A number of other high-level visits and political activities were accompanied by material and financial assistance, including humanitarian aid, debt rescheduling, etc.

Afghanistan

After the terrorist attacks in the US on 11 September, Afghanistan became the focus of world attention on account of the close relationship between the Taliban regime and terrorist leader Osama Bin Laden. The US formed an international anti-terror alliance over the next few weeks. When the Taliban rejected US demands in October, US air forces with British support opened an offensive, initially in support of the only armed opposition in Afghanistan, the United Islamic Front (Northern Alliance), which advanced into the capital city of Kabul on 13 November and the Taliban stronghold of Kandahar in early December. Most of the Alliance's fighters were Tajiks and Uzbeks, whereas the Taliban are overwhelmingly Pashtunis, who are also found in Pakistan.

· An interim government for six months under the ethnic Pashtuni Hamid Karzai.
· The calling of an assembly of tribal leaders (Loya Jirga) by ex-king Zahir Shah.
· The appointment of an interim government by the Loya Jirga. Furthermore, the UN Security Council was requested to issue a mandate for an international peacekeeping force.

On 20 December the Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 1386, under which an International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) was to be sent to Afghanistan. Austria agreed to participate in the ISAF with 75 personnel for a period of 6 months. It had already been agreed to call an International Conference for Reconstruction in Afghanistan, which was duly held in January 2002. Austria contributed a total of €12.3m, to be used in particular for demining, drug control and women's rights.

The Conflict between India and Pakistan

On 13 December there was a terrorist attack on the Indian parliament, for which India held the Pakistan-based Moslem Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed groups responsible and demanded their suppression. Subsequently, both sides mobilised along the demarcation line in the disputed province of Kashmir, transport links were cut, overflying rights cancelled and embassy personnel drastically reduced. Despite international appeals, diplomatic pressure and endeavours to mediate, tension continued to the end of the year, with repeated exchanges of fire and the flight of around 100,000 people.

The background to this and other terror attacks is the dispute over the province of Kashmir, which dates back to the division of British India into India and Pakistan. The predominantly Moslem Kashmir, on the border between the two states, would have been a candidate for integration into Pakistan, but the then Maharaja, a Hindu, declared the accession of his principality to the Indian Union. The resulting conflict led to the division of Kashmir along an east-west armistice line, but with renewed armed conflicts in 1965 and 1971. An Austrian, Brigadier Loidolt, commands a UN observer mission on the "Line of Control".

India and Pakistan have both been in possession of nuclear weapons since 1998 at the latest. Only one year later, renewed hostilities on the Kashmir demarcation line almost led to a fourth war between the two countries. The subsequent talks - like almost all the other negotiations since 1947 - brought no result. India refuses to consider mediation through a third party. Pakistan after September 11 proclaimed to take a strong stand against terrorist groups in an attempt to keep open the possibility of a direct dialogue with India.

Regional Organisations

The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), founded 1967 in Bangkok, is a regional organisation for the promotion of economic, social and cultural cooperation as well as the maintenance of peace. It now includes all of the ten countries of the region. Papua-New Guinea has observer status. There is institutionalised cooperation with China, Japan and South Korea (ASEAN+3) with regular meetings at ministerial level. The Asian Free Trade Association (AFTA) is expected to be implemented by 2003. The group is experiencing difficulty in finding a common line between members of vastly different development status, but is slowly consolidating, with support from Japan and the US. The military regime in Burma/Myanmar, ethnic-religious tensions over large parts of Indonesia and internal political problems in the Philippines are all preventing the progress of integration and a common line towards the outside world.

The ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) is a discussion forum set up by ASEAN in 1994, and is the only standing multilateral institution dealing with security issues in the Asia-Pacific region. It comprises the ten ASEAN members and a further 13 dialogue partners, including Russia, China, the US and the EU. There is an annual ministerial meeting and regular expert meetings to consider themes like confidence-building measures, preventive diplomacy, transnational crime, piracy, disaster aid, etc. The ARF could potentially play a role in Asia similar to that of the OSCE in Europe.

The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) comprises 21 states of the region as well as Canada and the US. Its aim is to create a comprehensive free trade zone between the APEC industrial countries by 2010 and the APEC developing countries by 2020. However, substantial progress towards these goals was not evident in 2001.

The South Asia Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), founded in 1985 with economic, social and cultural goals, comprises Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The aim is to abolish all tariff barriers and set up a South Asian Free trade Association (SAFTA) by 2008. However, opposing positions and bilateral disputes, especially the Kashmir conflict, reduce the scope for action in many areas.

The Shanghai Organisation for Cooperation comprises China, the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Its purpose is to ensure stability in the region through confidence-building measures and joint action against terrorism.

The EU-Asian Partnership

The multilateral dialogue with East Asia essentially rests on three pillars. The ASEAN-EU Ministerial Meeting has been held twice yearly since 1978. The 1980 EC-ASEAN Cooperation Agreement is a trade, economic and development treaty between the EU and the individual ASEAN states with the exception of Burma/Myanmar. The Asia- Europe Meeting (ASEM), an ASEAN initiative in 1996, is an informal biennial dialogue forum for heads of state and government of the EU, ASEAN (except Burma, Cambodia and Laos), China, Japan and South Korea. ASEM IV is to be held in Copenhagen in 2002. Other ASEM institutions are the Asia-Europe Foundation for the promotion of academic and cultural activities, the Asia-Europe Business Forum, the ASEM Business Conference, and the Asia-Europe Young Leaders Symposium, an Austro- Japanese initiative.

The political dialogue between the EU and the countries of Central Asia was stepped up in 2001. A decision to this effect was taken by the Council of Ministers on December 10. This accords with Austria's initiative within the Union to have more attention paid to the region. The TACIS cooperation with Tajikistan, which was broken off after the murder of the wife of a TACIS official, was resumed. The primary aims of the EU support measures are combating poverty, social and economic development, the environment, water management, functioning state institutions, combating the illicit drug trade, and border management. The TACIS funds for Central Asia were doubled. EU relations with Central Asia are to be reviewed in early 2002.

Cooperation council or committee meetings were held with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. There is as yet no EU partnership and cooperation agreement with Tajikistan, but the first session of a joint committee took place in Bruss els on 6 December under the trade and cooperation agreement. Various demarches or statements were issued in connection with developments like restrictions on freedom of information and the arrest of opposition politicians. In Tajikistan an EU demarche conc erned the situation of Afghan refugees along the Tajik-Afghan border. An EU statement welcomed the decision by Uzbekistan to open the border bridge at Termez for the delivery of humanitarian supplies to Afghanistan.